Research

Working Papers

A Bayesian Hierarchical Framework for Modeling Migration Flows. Aric Cutuli, Upmanu Lall, Michael J. Puma, Emile Esmaili, Rachata Muneepeerakul. arxiv:2412.01242

Selected Works in Progress

ENSO increased Food Insecurity in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Janavi Kumar, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Poul Holm, Eva Jobbova, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist.

Improving Subseasonal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Forecasts with U-Net Calibration. Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Bohar Singh, Haoming Deng, Aaron Kaplan, Avijit Dey, Susmitha Joseph.

Droughts in Middle East/Arabian Peninsula: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Forecasts. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson et al.

Warfare Ignited Contagion Dynamics in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbova. arxiv:2411.18978

Modeling Migration Flows with Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models. Emile Esmaili, Upmanu Lall, Michael J. Puma, Aric Cutuli, Rachata Muneepeerakul.