Research

Working Papers

El Nino amplified food insecurity in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbova, Janavi Kumar, Poul Holm, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Johannes Rom Dahl, John Alphonsus Matthews, Andrea Seim. Under review. [preprint] Press: [New Scientist article]

Improving subseasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecasts with U-Net calibration. Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Bohar Singh, Aaron Kaplan, Avijit Dey, Susmitha Joseph. Under review. [preprint]

ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Jing Yuan, Matteo Zampieri, Thang Luong, Ibrahim Hoteit. Under review. [preprint]

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for modeling migration flows. Aric Cutuli, Upmanu Lall, Michael J. Puma, Emile Esmaili, Rachata Muneepeerakul. [preprint]

Selected Works in Progress

Warfare Ignited Contagion Dynamics in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbova. [preprint]