Research

Working Papers

El Nino amplified food insecurity in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbova, Janavi Kumar, Poul Holm, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Johannes Rom Dahl, John Alphonsus Matthews, Andrea Seim.

Improving subseasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecasts with U-Net calibration. Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Bohar Singh, Aaron Kaplan, Avijit Dey, Susmitha Joseph. Under review.

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for modeling migration flows. Aric Cutuli, Upmanu Lall, Michael J. Puma, Emile Esmaili, Rachata Muneepeerakul. arxiv:2412.01242

Selected Works in Progress

Droughts in Middle East/Arabian Peninsula: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Forecasts. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Emile Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson et al.

Warfare Ignited Contagion Dynamics in Early Modern Europe. Emile Esmaili, Michael J. Puma, Francis Ludlow, Eva Jobbova. arxiv:2411.18978